Broker Check

10691 E Carter Rd, Ste 101, Traverse City, MI 49684 231-933-0631

Legacy Financial Services Group Logo

September 21, 2015 - Fed Cites These 3 Factors Behind Last Week's Decision

| September 21, 2015
Share |

Uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates weighed on markets last week, pushing the Dow and the S&P lower. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.15%, the Dow fell 0.29%, while the NASDAQ gained 0.10%.[1]

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve voted to hold interest rates steady at near zero for at least another month. Did the Fed choke or are officials just being cautious? It's hard to say, but we now know that recent global economic events are an official problem for the U.S. Though the Fed economists believe the labor market and other sectors of the U.S. economy are doing well, they cited three factors in their decision to keep rates low:[2]

  1. Weakening inflation pressure because of falling oil and gasoline prices, as well as a stronger dollar.
  2. Recent global events like China's surprise Yuan devaluation and recent economic reports that raise concerns about slowing worldwide.
  3. Financial developments like the recent stock market correction.


Investors read the decision as a vote of no confidence in the economy on the part of the Fed and reacted with another selloff. However, much like the run-up to Y2K or the panic surrounding the tapering of quantitative easing, we think that a lot of the recent headlines are simply hyperbole.

The Fed doesn't feel a lot of pressure to raise interest rates because inflation is still quite tame, and the risk of an overheated economy is low. Right now, the Fed's main concern is risk management; central bankers don't want to risk tightening too soon in an environment of slowing global growth. Instead, they'd rather commit to a slow, gradual approach that gives them plenty of wiggle room to adjust to changing conditions.

Relax. A rate hike is coming. Some think it will happen in December while others think the Fed will hold off until early 2016. What's important is that our domestic economy is looking solid, and the Fed doesn't want to act hastily. Realistically, we can expect market volatility to continue for the near future as investors price in the uncertainty.

The week ahead will be highlighted by a speech by Fed chair Janet Yellen as well as another report on second-quarter GDP. Analysts will be looking for more clarity about the Fed's path to higher interest rates. Chinese President Xi Jinping will also be visiting the U.S. and analysts hope that he'll provide some insight into how China plans to tackle their growth problem.[3]

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Existing Home Sales
Wednesday: PMI Manufacturing Index Flash, EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday: Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, Janet Yellen Speaks 5:00 PM ET
Friday: GDP, Consumer Sentiment

Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance and Treasury.gov. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Corporate bond performance is represented by the DJCBP. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

HEADLINES:

Greek exit polls show left-wing win. Projections suggest that the left-wing Syriza party responsible for the debt showdown likely won Sunday's elections. The win could mean that further austerity fights are in store for Greece's creditors.[4]

Housing starts fall more than expected. Groundbreaking on new houses dropped more than projected in August, though permits for new construction rebounded, pointing to underlying strength in the housing market.[5]

Weekly jobless claims fall to multi-month low. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since mid-July, suggesting that the labor market continues to improve, though the data may be volatile due to the Labor Day holiday.[6]

Consumer prices fall. Prices on a range of U.S. goods and services fell last month as gasoline prices dropped again and the U.S. dollar gained strength. Falling inflation complicates the Fed's decision on interest rate raises.[7]


These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.

The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index is a 96-bond index designed to represent the market performance, on a total-return basis, of investment-grade bonds issued by leading U.S. companies. Bonds are equally weighted by maturity cell, industry sector, and the overall index.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

By clicking on these links, you will leave our server, as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.

These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.


  1. http://finance.yahoo.com
  2. http://www.cnbc.com
  3. http://www.foxbusiness.com
  4. http://www.foxcarolina.com/
  5. http://www.foxbusiness.com
  6. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/17
  7. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/16
Share |